Jakarta, 22 January 2024 – A survey released by Indonesian Political Indicators shows that the electability of presidential and vice presidential candidate number 2, Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka in various simulations increased after the third debate in the 2024 presidential election or the second presidential candidate debate on January 7 2024. In fact, in this debate, Prabowo was attacked by the presidential candidate number 2. 1, Anies Baswedan and presidential candidate number 3, Ganjar Pranowo.

In the top of mind simulation, Prabowo Subianto’s electability is at 46.4%. Meanwhile Anies won 22.4% and Ganjar 20.2%. Prabowo’s electability in the simulation increased by 5% compared to the previous survey from 30 December 2023 to 6 January 2024. At that time, Prabowo was chosen by 41.4% of respondents.

On the other hand, Anies’ electability fell 0.8% because previously it was at 23.2%. Ganjar also experienced a decline in electability because he previously achieved 20.6% electability.

In the three-name simulation, Prabowo achieved 48% or an increase of 2.8% from the previous survey. Meanwhile, Anies achieved 24.1% from the previous 25.3% or a decrease of 1.2%. Ganjar also fell from 22.5% to 21%.

The same phenomenon occurs when simulating three pairs. In a face-to-face survey, Prabowo-Gibran’s electability was 48.6%, Anies-Muhaimin Iskandar (Cak Imin) 24.17%, and Ganjar-Mahfud MD 21.6%.

Prabowo’s electability increased from the previous survey of 45.8%. On the other hand, Anies-Cak Imin fell 1.3% after previously reaching 25.5%. Likewise with Ganjar-Mahfud which fell 1.4% from the last survey.

“So far Prabowo Subianto’s support has increased compared to the previous survey, both in spontaneous simulations, simulations of three presidential candidates, and simulations
Photo ballot papers of presidential and vice presidential candidates. “Meanwhile, the two competitors, Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo, tend to stagnate or even decline,” said Executive Director of Indonesian Political Indicators, Burhanuddin Muhtadi in an online survey release, Saturday (20/1/2024).

Burhanuddin revealed that there were a number of factors that caused Prabowo-Gibran’s electability to rise, and on the other hand, the electability of his two competitors fell. It is said that the source of Prabowo’s increase in votes is mainly among young people, especially the Gen Z group, which is currently increasingly dominant.

Apart from that, the debate also had an influence on increasing Prabowo-Gibran’s electability. Even though many people think that Prabowo lost the debate which raised the theme of defense and security, people at the grassroots actually see the opposite.

“Prabowo remains the favorite in the debate. Many people see sharp criticism from Anies and Ganjar as an attack on Prabowo’s personality, especially
what Anies said, so that the audience is more sympathetic to Prabowo than Anies and Ganjar,” he said.

This survey was conducted by Indonesian Political Indicators from January 10 to January 16 2024. The population of this survey is all Indonesian citizens who have the right to vote. Sampling used the multistage random sampling method. In this survey, the sample size was 1,200 people from all provinces, distributed proportionally. Assuming a simple random sampling method, a base sample size of 1,200 respondents has an error tolerance or margin of error of around ±2.9% at a 95% confidence level.

The original article in Bahasa Indonesia can be accessed here